The Ruthenian Famine

[TLS]

Hunger in the Bloodlands

1709

The Russo-Turkish War of 1703, as it will be called by later historians, saw the widespread destruction, raiding, pillaging, and burning of a vast and fertile plain. Years of war, purposeful destruction, and displacement have fundamentally undermined the agricultural economy from the Dvina to the Black Sea. The environs of the great cities of this transitional region--Minsk, Smolensk, Kiev, Kharkov, and the peripheral cities of Lwow and Moscow--have all been, to one degree or another, scoured and knocked out of commission. The year following the outbreak of peace, rather than being marked by a return to normalcy, was only exacerbated by the chaos of the transition in governance over this vast region. Serfs lost their traditional landlords to war, disease, or by the movement of lines on a map, while Cossacks and Tatars sought to wring more and more out of an increasingly destitute area. All the while, the crops went untended, and now that the winter has arrived the scale of the devastation has been made manifest.

The famine spreads in waves. In the worst hit areas, in the Ukraine proper (the environs of Kiev and Kharkov) the scale of the disaster is made manifest early on. By early January landless serfs attempt, illegally, to abandon their lands and take refuge in the city, believing there to be food inside the walls. The depleted civil administrations attempt to keep out the rabble, but increasingly large bands come through in spite of the frigid temperatures. Villages and estates are abandoned wholesale to the frozen steppe, nobles are killed by starving serfs in search of sustenance, and market towns are inundated and stripped by the emaciated wanderers. The hunger is not confined to the Ukraine, however, as the eastern portions of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania (Minsk and Smolensk) were similarly marked by violent and purposefully rapacious tactics by the warring sides in the previous war. Here the famine is not quite all-encompassing, but similar scenes to those in the Ukraine are occasionally seen by the time early March comes around, and by the early spring it is apparent that something is seriously amiss in the East. Lwow and Moscow, both far from the epicenter but wracked by fighting in their own right, are less marked by the famine itself and more by the knock-on effects of those streaming out of the worst affected regions.

As the year progresses the problems only compound on each other. The serfs, displaced from their lands, are sensibly scouring the territory far and wide for food in the here and now rather than tending to their crops. As the weather clears and the nobles can be bothered to emerge from their winter hibernation they attempt to force the hungry masses back to the fields, but find that their respective governments are so beaten down by half a decade of combat that they are on their own local devices. Militia and local garrisons attempt to keep the peace, trying to cleanse the cities of undesirable elements and protect grain shipments to the cities. Neither Poland nor Russia have the infrastructure to move grain effectively to the Ukraine, as their river systems bring the food in other directions. Thus Poland finds itself with bumper crops in Poland proper and famine in Ruthenia. Inefficient overland wagons of grain and supplies have to be escorted by military forces lest they be swarmed by the ravenous serfs.

The hot, bloody, and hungry summer does not give way to an especially productive harvest come the fall. In the heart of the Ukraine most fields went unattended and thus the harvest is even more catastrophically poor than it was the year before. To the north, in the Lithuanian lands, the local nobility was better able to marshal the resources to push the serfs back into the fields, but even then the harvest is middling at best. Further afield, in Muscovy and Galicia, the influx of fleeing serfs strains and almost breaks the agricultural systems. Ideally the influx of cheap labor would be beneficial, but the nobles in both Russia and Poland are so terrified of the precedent of allowing serfs to just walk off their land that only the most desperate and unscrupulous take advantage of the situation. However, both Moscow and Lwow are close enough that their local serfs were generally sufficiently fed to have an average harvest.

The damage to the Ottoman vassals is in many ways even greater. The Zaporizhian Host, after suffering heavy blows in spite of its victorious actions through the war, is dependent on the neighboring regions for trade and sustenance. Long a destination for serfs fleeing harsh masters, the chaos of the famine drives even more into their lands, creating a maelstrom of hunger and desperation. Their lands are stalked by death like no other. The Crimeans, while better off and closer to trade/grain shipments from the Black Sea, are similarly hit by the loss of their closest sources of loot, food, and supplies, and similarly struck by the inundation--though in some ways it proves to be a blessing, as the slave catchers simply pitch themselves as the last resort: better a fed slave in Constantinople than a starved serf in Podolia.

------------------------
Game Effects:
Note: I've taken into account any damages left over from war-time. These are effective now, so edit your 1709 build accordingly if appropriate.

Poland
-Kiev: No income 1709, no income 1710
-Minsk, Smolensk: .25 income 1709, .5 income 1710
-Lwow: .75 income 1709, normal income 1710
Tax Losses: .75 point (the affected regions are effectively overwhelmed, taxation grinds to a halt)

Russia
-Kharkov: No income 1709, no income 1710
-Moscow: .75 income 1709, normal income 1710
Tax losses: .5 points

Ottoman Vassals:
-Zaporizhian Sich: No income 1709, 1710
-Crimea: 50% income 1709, 75% 1710

[TLS]

1710

The famine has largely died down outside of the core of the Ukrainian heartlands. In northern Ruthenia (the environs of Minsk and Smolensk) the sub-par crop of 1709 is barely enough to support the population through the winter and spring, leading to a particularly lean summer, but by the time fall comes around the harvest is thankfully sufficient. Loss of life is substantially lower than the year before, though the region is hardly economically productive due to the need to utilize most of the crops to feed the local populace. Meanwhile, towards the peripheries of the famine (Moscow and Lwow) 1710 is more or less a normal year. After their own lean times the year before, the populations of both Muscovy and Galicia are back to being within the normal ranges of 18th century agriculture.

Deep in the Ukraine, however, the situation does not noticeably improve. The devastation of 1709 has bled into 1710, as the ghastly feedback loop continues. The abysmal harvest of the year before means that by 1710 there is little in the way of food to keep the population afloat. Desperate grain shipments are diverted from deeper inland towards the Ukraine, but, again, this is barely sufficient to keep the cities alive, let alone the countryside. By now chaos and anarchy begin to reign beyond the walls of the major cities. The Cossack host has essentially collapsed under the crushing weight of the escaped serfs, spewing armed and desperate warriors onto the steppes. Violent raids and peasant uprisings engulf large swathes of the countryside as the soldiers desperately try to maintain control and ensure that something, anything, can be done to ensure that there is a harvest this year.

The garrisons are able to establish enough of a semblance of order within decent distance of the cities that the harvest of 1710 is noticeably improved on the (abysmal) 1709 harvest. However, the deep countryside and steppe appear to be no better off than they were the year before.

----------------------------------------------
Game effects:

Poland
-Kiev: no income 1710, .25 income 1711
-Minsk, Smolensk: .5 income 1710, normal income 1711
-Lwow: normal income 1710
Tax Losses: .25 point (taxation system effectively restored to most of the region, save for the deep Ukraine)
Population Losses due to Famine: 500,000

Russia
-Kharkov: no income 1710, .25 income 1711
-Moscow: normal income 1710
Tax losses: .25 points
Population Losses due to Famine: 500,000

Ottoman Vassals:
-Zaporizhian Sich: no income 1710, no income 1711 (Population Losses due to Famine: 100,000)
-Crimea: 75% income 1710, 75% income 1711 (Population Losses due to Famine: 50,000)